A possible reopening. A new-home decision worth preparing for.

What this first edition establishes

This is the starting edition for our five-day watch. The legal position was checked on October 10 in Toronto; exchange rates are the October 9 business-day observations. Builder figures below were checked on October 10. There is no prior edition against which to calculate a change.

The last extension was announced on February 4, 2024 and enacted on June 20, 2024. It was not an August announcement. Being further into the autumn does not tell us whether another extension will be made. [4] [5]

Two advertised new-home examples, with the conditions attached

These are Mattamy’s advertised model starting prices in two Durham communities, not confirmed available lots. Both figures include an estimated temporary Ontario enhanced HST rebate for eligible buyers. An ineligible buyer may pay more; premiums and options are extra. The advertised figures are a comparison base, not a quotation for a foreign buyer. [13] [14]

*Rebate-conditional advertised model pricing, not guaranteed inventory or a foreign purchaser’s final price. Price per square foot is our calculation using the builder’s stated model area, whose measurement basis must be confirmed. It is not an appraisal, condo market benchmark or adjustment for land, parking, finishes or closing costs.

What those model prices translate to

Bank of Canada rates are expressed as Canadian dollars per unit of foreign currency. We divide the Canadian purchase price by that rate; the units-per-C$1 column is its reciprocal. October 10 is a Saturday, so this edition uses October 9 observations. These selected currencies are funding examples, not a ranking of foreign-buyer origins. [11] [12]

Amounts are rounded to the nearest unit of the funding currency, using unrounded conversions. These are indicative purchase-price translations, not bank quotes or all-in budgets. PKR and AED are omitted numerically because a current official observation could not be verified; no stale rate has been substituted. *Both CAD model prices assume eligibility for the builder’s estimated enhanced HST rebate. Ineligible buyers may pay more; lot premiums, options and closing costs are extra.

A deposit is the beginning of the commitment

The foreign-currency cost of a preconstruction home can change between the deposit and closing. Compare each payment in Canadian dollars, when it is due, and what happens under a less favourable exchange rate. A smaller initial deposit changes payment timing; it does not cut the purchase price.

Ask for the exact home or lot, an itemized incentive schedule, the deposit timetable, HST and rebate treatment, adjustments and completion provisions. A model page does not establish that a particular lot is available. Plan for a delayed completion, a changed mortgage qualification or an appraisal below the contract price.

A 2027 closing does not itself permit a purchase agreement today. The regulations cover acquisitions of legal or equitable interests, with or without conditions. Have eligibility confirmed before committing or paying a deposit. [3]

Why future supply matters, without assuming a shortage

CMHC’s Fall 2026 report distinguishes homes completing from earlier construction from a weaker pipeline of new ownership supply. A reduced pipeline could limit later choice if demand strengthens; the pattern varies by city. [10]

Current inventory tells a different part of the story. CREA reported 4.8 months of national inventory at the end of August 2026, with the number of listings close to the historical seasonal average. That does not establish an immediate nationwide shortage. We will watch local absorption and new construction alongside policy, rather than treating a possible reopening as a price forecast. [9]

The headline price is only one part of the budget

Ontario’s 25% Non-Resident Speculation Tax may apply to a taxable foreign purchase, and the City of Toronto has a separate 10% municipal tax. Ordinary land transfer taxes also matter. British Columbia’s 20% additional property transfer tax applies to the taxable foreign purchaser’s proportionate residential interest in specified regional districts. These rules have exemptions and are separate from the federal ban. [6] [7] [8]

For a rental plan, add financing, property tax, insurance, maintenance, condominium fees where relevant, management, vacancy and eventual selling costs. Do not count an HST rebate or rental income until the assumptions are supportable. Currency appreciation can add to a property gain, but depreciation can offset it or deepen a loss.

What buyers can do before making a commitment

• International buyers: establish status, ownership structure, lawful funding and eligibility first. Citizens and permanent residents are outside the Act’s individual non-Canadian definition; some other exceptions are conditional. [1] [3]
• Compare the full cost of a completed builder home, a future-phase contract and a suitable resale alternative. Check what is genuinely available and when it can be occupied.
• Canadian buyers: use the same property-level discipline. Test a purchase under a modest-demand scenario as well as a stronger one; it should have a purpose beyond an assumed surge of foreign capital.
• We will revisit the law, reference exchange rates, public housing evidence and the builder examples every five days. New developments will be distinguished from unchanged checks; prior observation dates will remain visible.

Questions buyers ask